What Can The Dodgers Tell Us About Newsom’s 2028 Chances?
California, once the envy of the nation, is now a cautionary tale of policies gone awry.
While much of America was caught up in the excitement of baseball this past week, I was thinking about politics. Specifically, I was struck by what might be the most revealing poll of the next presidential election.
According to The New York Times, 80 percent of Americans are rooting against the Dodgers.
Eighty percent!
The sentiment is unprecedented. After all, the Dodgers aren’t playing another U.S. team, but are competing against a team from another country.
To sports fans, such a poll might feel like a quirky sports statistic. But for political strategists, it would be wise to treat the poll as a bellwether for California Governor Gavin Newsom’s political chances in 2028.
Why? Because if the poll suggests anything it’s that The Dodgers’ unpopularity reflects something much deeper and more concerning than baseball: how Americans view California itself.
And the picture isn’t pretty.
A Shift in Sentiment
Historically, Americans have rallied behind domestic teams when they face off against international opponents. Take the 1992 World Series when the Atlanta Braves played the Toronto Blue Jays. A Harris Poll from that year found the Braves were “the nation’s favorite baseball team,” while Toronto ranked near the bottom.
Fast forward to 2019 when the Golden State Warriors faced the Toronto Raptors in the NBA Finals, and the sentiment had shifted. According to Bleacher Report, fans overwhelmingly supported Toronto over Golden State.
What changed?
The answer lies in how Americans perceive California. Once the land of sun, surf, and opportunity, California is now synonymous with homelessness, crime, and dysfunction. The state’s image has deteriorated to the point where even its sports teams are seen as symbols of its broader problems (and I say this as someone who loves California and thinks the sentiment is misguided).
California Under Newsom
Gavin Newsom’s tenure as governor has done little to reverse perceptions of California. Despite billions spent on homelessness and housing programs, the number of unhoused people has continued to rise in many areas.
Overall, the state faces a $12 billion budget deficit for the 2025-26 fiscal year, its third consecutive year of fiscal strain. This has led to cuts in state programs and greater reliance on reserves.
In addition, California’s Medicaid program faces a $6.2 billion funding gap, prompting discussions about borrowing from the general fund.
And lastly, there is the perception of crime. Following a string of highly publicized heists, the issue of public safety is unavoidable, regardless of declining local violent crime statistics.
All of these issues are bigger than numbers on a spreadsheet. They are realities for millions of Californians. And more than anything, they are shaping how the rest of the country views the state.
The Dodgers as a Symbol
The Dodgers’ polling numbers reflect more than sports fandom. They are a cultural and political barometer. When 80% of people root against the American team, it signals broad dissatisfaction with what California, and Gavin Newsom, represent to the nation.
California, once the envy of the nation, is now a cautionary tale of policies gone awry.
This shift in perception poses a significant problem for Newsom. As he eyes a potential presidential run in 2028, he must confront that California is no longer seen as a national model but as a state in decline—an image for which he, as its leader, is widely held responsible.
A Warning for 2028
It’s tempting to dismiss the Dodgers poll as an anomaly or chalk it up to Americans rooting for the underdog. But the numbers are too lopsided to ignore. Even The New York Times struggles to explain the disparity.
That’s because the poll reflects a deeper mood: Americans are disillusioned with California and, by extension, its leadership.
For Newsom, this is a clear warning—his record as governor will be a central focus nationally, and California’s struggles could define his campaign.
Political strategists and pundits would be wise to take note. Betting on Newsom in 2028 might be as risky as betting on the Dodgers to win over the hearts of American fans.
The numbers don’t lie, and they paint a grim picture for both.
As the 2028 election approaches, voters will seek leaders capable of uniting the country and addressing its challenges. If Newsom aspires to this role, he must recognize that California’s issues have become national concerns.
Right now, it’s not just the Dodgers with the nation against them—Governor Newsom faces the same uphill battle.
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