What Does Mass Deportation Look Like?
Estimates from the American Immigration Council suggest that deporting 13 million undocumented immigrants could cost nearly $1 trillion over a decade.
Former President Donald Trump is preparing to initiate a large-scale deportation campaign, aiming to remove record numbers of undocumented immigrants by leveraging a broad network of federal agencies, according to several individuals familiar with the plans.
The Trump team is reportedly prioritizing deportations from the U.S.-Mexico border and focusing on immigrants with criminal backgrounds as a key early target. Plans also include expanding detention and deportation operations across the country.
However, the scale of the effort raises significant concerns regarding its feasibility. While the exact number of undocumented immigrants in the U.S. remains uncertain, experts warn that a nationwide deportation operation would require considerable resources and coordination between multiple federal agencies, including the Department of Justice and the Pentagon.
Patrick J. Lechleitner, the acting director of Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE), acknowledged in July that carrying out such an ambitious deportation campaign would present both logistical and financial challenges.
During his first term, Trump faced difficulties in ramping up deportations. Despite his administration’s focus on immigration enforcement, data from the government shows that the Biden administration deported more individuals in fiscal year 2023 than Trump did in any year of his presidency.
The costs of a mass deportation effort would likely be staggering. Estimates from the American Immigration Council suggest that deporting 13 million undocumented immigrants could cost nearly $1 trillion over a decade. The operation would require substantial increases in ICE personnel, detention facilities, and immigration court capacity to process a potential surge in deportations.
Approximately half of ICE’s 21,000 employees are assigned to the agency’s Homeland Security Investigations (HSI) division, which focuses on transnational crime such as drug smuggling and human trafficking.
Some Trump allies have suggested that HSI resources could be redirected toward immigration enforcement to bolster deportation efforts. However, HSI has distanced itself from direct immigration work in recent years, citing concerns that such activities undermine trust between immigrant communities and law enforcement.
Trump’s administration also plans to invoke the Alien Enemies Act, a wartime law from 1798, to expedite the deportation of individuals accused of gang involvement. Legal experts expect the use of this statute to face significant challenges in court, given its potential to conflict with constitutional protections.
Civil rights organizations, including the American Civil Liberties Union (ACLU), are already preparing for legal battles, anticipating that aggressive deportation tactics could violate due process rights and other protections for immigrants.
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